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Prediction for CME (2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-01T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37629/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright core mostly on the right side of the CME. The source is a large L-shaped filament eruption stretching from ~S35W10 to ~S15E40 centered around ~S35E20 starting around 2025-03-01T17:00Z. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA, GOES SUVI, and STEREO A EUVI 304. Dimming, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO/AIA 193. --- Arrival Notes: Characterized by a slow rise in Bt from around 4nT to a peak of 8.9nT at 2025-03-05T22:23Z. Bz largely swings between northward and southward throughout the signature, briefly sustaining southward around -7.5nT from 2025-03-05T19:38Z-2025-03-05T21:58Z. An small sustained increase in wind speed from around 460km/s to 490km/s is observed alongside an initial temperature and density bump. Speed and temperature slowly decrease as the signature plays out and density slowly increases. This is likely the expected glancing blow of CME 2025-03-01T18:24Z, anticipated at L1 at 2025-03-04T16:00Z (+- 7 hours).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-04T17:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-05T02:00Z (-4.79h, +7.93h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 33.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/03/01 18:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 04:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 10:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 5:50
POS Midpoint: 07:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 13:05

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.1
Travel Time: ~6.1 * 13:05 = 79:50

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-03-05T02:00Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/03/02 17:36Z


*** Based on the location and observations from the Solar Orbiter satellite, I am submitting a second prediction made alongside the prior (https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/prediction/detail/4584). The impact type for this prediction is 3 (expected bulk impact), while the prior is 1 (expected glancing blow). My estimated odds of an arrival around this prediction's time frame is 33%, and 66% for the prior prediction.

Lead Time: 12.93 hour(s)
Difference: -8.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-03-04T04:14Z

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